In the first quarter of 2026, China's polyester exports continued to show a growth trend, with monthly export volumes continuously breaking historical records for the same period. This became a prominent performance in the operation of the chemical fiber industry. During the same period, the prices of domestic cotton, polyester staple fibers, and other textile raw materials rose significantly, presenting a differentiated pattern of "high export prosperity and high cost pressure" in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. 

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in March 2026, China's export volume of polyester products was 127.75 million tons, an increase of 2.82% year-on-year; the cumulative export volume for the first quarter was 364.62 million tons, an increase of 8.40% year-on-year. The monthly export volume of polyester in the first three months all reached new historical highs for the same period, indicating the resilience of China's polyester industry in the global market. From the trend, the export growth rate has gradually slowed down, and the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed compared to the beginning of the year. The industry has shifted from rapid growth to stable growth. The high base effect, changes in the rhythm of overseas demand, and international logistics and geopolitical factors have jointly led to a slowdown in growth rates, but the export fundamentals remain stable. 

The export structure has shown significant differentiation, with polyester filament becoming the core growth driver. In March, the export of polyester filament increased by 14.98% year-on-year, making it the only product in the polyester industry chain that benefited from the base effect and maintained rapid growth. The main reason was the trade facilitation benefits brought about by India's cancellation of BIS certification. In March, China's export volume of polyester filament to India reached 64,700 tons, up 33.36% year-on-year. India remained China's largest export market for polyester filament, with a monthly increase of 49,800 tons in exports to India, becoming the main driving force for the export of polyester filament. 

While the export of polyester remained strong, the prices of raw materials in the upstream of the textile industry rose significantly, pushing up the production costs of enterprises. The price of cotton in Zhengzhou rose twice within two months, driving the spot price of raw cotton to increase by approximately 1,600 yuan per ton compared to before the Spring Festival. The short fibers of polyester were affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and the fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and chemical fiber raw materials were transmitted to the end products, resulting in a cumulative increase of 1,200 yuan per ton. Both cotton and short fibers of polyester rose simultaneously, forming a "double cost increase" situation, causing the costs of yarns and fabrics to rise rapidly, squeezing the profit margins of enterprises, and making their order-taking and production scheduling strategies more cautious. 

Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the resilience of polyester exports is expected to remain. Long filament products will maintain their relative advantages under the market demand support in countries like India, driving the overall exports to remain at a high level. However, with a high base, the growth rate may continue to moderately decline. From the cost perspective, geopolitical factors, fluctuations in energy prices, and changes in cotton supply and demand will still support the raw material prices, making a high-level fluctuation more likely. The industry is facing the challenge of balancing stable exports and cost control simultaneously.