As the deadline for Trump to suspend the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, exports from many Asian economies to the United States have soared, causing the US trade deficit with Asia to continue to expand.

On June 23, it was reported that Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, China and South Korea all set or approached new records for exports to the United States in May, indicating that companies are racing against time to get goods to the United States to avoid possible high tariffs.

This round of export surge is expected to show up in the US trade data for May this week. The market predicts that the US trade deficit in May will reach US$91 billion, pushing the total deficit so far in 2025 to nearly US$643 billion, far exceeding the historical record for the same period.

Some analysts pointed out that if Trump imposes historically high tariffs on Asian economies in early July, the current surge in exports may be quickly reversed, thereby impacting economic growth across the region. APEC has lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.3% in March to 2.6% due to trade tensions.

Record export growth in major Asian economies

According to data released in the past few weeks, Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand all hit record highs in exports to the United States in May. Among them, Vietnam and Thailand's exports to the United States surged 35% year-on-year, and Taiwan's exports to the United States soared nearly 90%.

It is worth noting that South Korea's exports to the United States in May were also close to record levels. In addition, customs data released on Monday showed that South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 8.3% year-on-year, of which exports to the United States increased by 4.3%.

The sharp growth pattern of Asian economies' exports to the United States has overturned historical rules.

Normally, Asian suppliers will increase exports to the United States before the end of the year to prepare for the Christmas holiday, making trade more active in the second half of the year. However, the threat of new tariffs that may be implemented in early July has forced companies to ship goods to the United States as soon as possible.