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[Plastic prices are too crazy, the market outlook is careful with these factors!]
Release date:[2020/9/10] Read a total of[68]time

The plastics and polypropylene markets rose sharply. Behind the continued rise, the expectations of the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", the determination of petrochemical manufacturers to continue to destock, and the rise of industry-related products are inseparable. Petrochemical, port inventory and

One, petrochemical prices


The de-stocking effect of the two oil and petrochemical companies improved significantly in August, which played a role as the driving force behind the recent sharp rise in polyolefins. The willingness of superimposed petrochemicals to keep prices is obvious. As of the end of August, polyolefin petrochemical inventories remained at 580,000 tons, down 11.45 percentage points month-on-month and 12.78 percentage points year-on-year.


2. Strong downstream consumer demand

 

Although the growth rate of the traditional consumption sector has slowed down in the past two years, with the improvement of people's living standards and the adjustment of various national policies, new changes have occurred in the consumption structure of the downstream plastics industry, and new growth drivers have emerged.


For example, with regard to polypropylene fiber materials, the demand for fiber materials has increased due to the liberalization of the second child and the continuous development of the medical and health industry. In particular, this year’s epidemic has led to a blowout in the demand for fiber materials; due to various small appliances, automobiles, and large-scale The fields of home appliances and modification are developing rapidly, and injection molding, especially copolymer injection molding, has a good development momentum. In terms of transparent materials, the development of various high-end packaging and medical and sanitary products is also driving the development of transparent materials.


In general, the current application fields and dosages of injection molding, fiber, and transparency are constantly expanding. Because of this, with the release of new capacity in the past two years and an average monthly output increase of more than 10%, petrochemical inventories have not seen sustained growth year-on-year, which can reflect the overall strong growth trend of downstream consumer demand.


As of the end of August, the overall operating rate of plastic downstream agricultural film companies was 31.4%, a month-on-month increase of 9.4%. The demand in September is expected to continue to expand, and the willingness to stock up in advance for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" will increase, which will play a certain supporting role in the upstream market.


3. Imports are tight


From the perspective of imports, the start of the installations at the source of imports remains low, coupled with the increase in internal demand, it is difficult for imports to increase in the medium term.


In the early stage, Iranian goods were unable to reach the port normally, and due to the relatively tight import sources, the port inventory center was at a relatively low level, which also contributed to the recent sustained rebound in prices.


Import data dropped sharply, pushing up polyolefin prices sharply.

The impact of Hurricane Laura led to the closure of some chemical plants in the United States. According to statistics, more than 5 million tons of polyethylene were shut down. Given the relative shortage of supply in the US market, it is expected that within 1-2 months, very few cargoes will be exported to China, which will not alleviate the current tension in the market and once again establish a pattern of high prices.

  

In addition to China in the Asian region, the operating rates of the main polyethylene producing countries in the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia are at a relatively low level, and the output of the polyethylene industry in some factories and countries is in a state of negative growth. Coupled with the continuous low opening rate of polyethylene equipment in Asia-Pacific countries. This makes the supply to the Chinese market relatively tight in the third and fourth quarters. 


The operating rate of imported goods source areas is generally low. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, insufficient supply of raw materials has caused monomer prices to rise. While cost support is strong, it inhibits the growth of downstream polymer production. In addition, with the rebound in demand in Europe and the United States, trade flows have changed, which has also weakened the room for growth of domestic imports. Therefore, there is little pressure on imports in the third and fourth quarters.


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