Why can Zheng Mian out of the ICE market divergence, such a high-profile trend of resistance? The author's judgment is as follows:

First, there is little pressure on the domestic cotton supply. First of all, from the planting intention survey of various relevant institutions, the national cotton planting intention continues to decline in 2024, the area reduction trend remains unchanged, and the weather and rhythm of the main cotton producing area are hyped by bulls and funds. Second, cotton production in 2023/24 was lower than expected. According to the data of China Cotton Quality Notarization and Inspection Network, as of April 8, 2024, the total processing of lint in Xinjiang in 2023/24 will be 5.573,800 tons. Considering that the new daily processing volume in Xinjiang has fallen below 0.05 million tons since early April, the industry generally judges that the total public inspection volume in Xinjiang in 2023/24 will be about 5.8 million tons. Thirdly, the comprehensive cost of cotton supervision in Xinjiang generally reaches about 17,000 yuan/ton, which also supports Zheng cotton pan surface.

Second, the performance of domestic cotton consumption is not satisfactory, on the one hand, the industry's expectation of 2024 cotton textile and garment industry "peak season is not prosperous, off-season is not weak" is strong, and domestic cotton yarn quotation performance is relatively strong since early April; On the other hand, up to now, the terminal cotton yarn/grey fabric/fabric inventory and the raw material inventory of cotton in textile enterprises are not all small, and they have a certain ability to resist product accumulation and working capital pressure.

Third, there are more views on the continued rebound of commodity futures and stock markets in 2024. According to statistics, at the end of March, the balance of China's broad money (M2) was 249.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year, the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. At the recent press conference held by the State New Office, the People's Bank of China once again released the signal that the next stage of RRR reduction and monetary policy remains loose, which is a continuation of good news for commodities and the stock market.

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